Covid 19 situation now?

[jesm]

Roberb7 offers many great spots across Mexico.
I do want to strongly second his recommendation of Pátzcuaro, Michoacán about 120 miles south of GTO, 50 miles from lager city of Morelia. We spent several months renting on the lake and almost bought there.
smaller, 50k, more a regional hub, and not as dramatic as GTO and some colder in winter, still not “cold”,. It is the center of the ancient Purépecha culture still apparent in the faces, attire and stature of it’s indigenous residents. Wonderful woven skills both in wool and reeds from the lake. The Purépechas were the only peoples in central Mexico to repel Aztec invaders and remain a free people until Cortez. There is a large fortress/temple dating from 1400s, magnificent and unique in design outside the town, at opposite end of Lago Pátzcuaro, the home of the butterfly net native fisherman, who still practice the art early each morning.
A weekend will allow a decent impression.
In no way would I try to attract you away from GTO. However, many of us here like to keep this place as is and are not strongly promotional. Once here, you will quickly understand. sshhhhh

[wmeleney]

You all have been very helpful to me. Not knowing me, you can’t know how much time and thought I have engaged in, nor the complications of being married to a wonderful woman who does not share my extreme pessimism about the USA. I’ve been to lots of places in Mexico and also to Guatemala. When I think about being a part-time or roving ex-pat, GTO is the only place I’ve found that checks most of the boxes. So it’s not that I think GTO is perfect or magical, it’s just that it fits for me, so far. I have been wanting to try it out for 3-6 months to see if that fit wears well. The likely demise of the US sooner than I have been thinking for 5-10 years has just moved my timetable up. And with a Trump re-election and the republicans holding the senate, autocratic rule may be inevitable soon. Your help in this thread has been very useful. I’ll be very curious to read what you and possibly other folks add. Be well, and be grateful that you have already made a good, but of course imperfect, choice.

[doncoulter]

@wmeleney: You sound like a smart guy who is giving a lot of careful thought to possibly moving to Guanajuato, or at least spending considerable time here. An astounding number of people move here without having done so, and I confess that I originally figured you to be another one of those. I applaud your thinking process, and I'm confident that in the end you'll make the best decision for you.

Since you began this thread by asking about Covid, you might be interested in reading this article, from today's Mexico News Daily, as well as the articles it links to. In brief, four independent epidemiological models suggest that the actual number of new Covid cases per day in Mexico may be well north of 100,000, or more than 20 times the estimates provided by the government.

[roberb7]

The COVID-19 death count for Guanajuato Capital remains at 45.

[jesm]

There is confusion to say the least on every aspect of the Covid tragedy.
My current reading of periodicals and websites tell me that the 40-odd daily death reports are reflective of the entire state of Guanajuato not just the Capital. The entire state has suffered about 2000 deaths it total.
Sure hoping that is the case.

[doncoulter]

@jesm: Yes, you're correct that "the 40-odd daily death reports are reflective of the entire state of Guanajuato not just the Capital." The figure of 45 deaths reported by roberb7 is total deaths to date for the city of Guanajuato.

Those figures are, of course, from official government sources. The federal government itself admits that its statistics likely understate the true numbers of confirmed cases, deaths, etc. And several independent sources contend the true figures are likely much higher. If that's indeed the case, I would expect that the same applies to our local statistics as well.

[jesm]

Thanks Don. Any number is more than wanted but the cumulative death toll here, while likely higher than reported, is not as bad as I expected six months into the pandemic.

[DonJuane]

@jesm
Roberb7 offers many great spots across Mexico.

Also be sure not to miss those same exact cities, minus one that I listed prior to that post.

[wmeleney]

@DanCoulter: I appreciate your validation. And thanks for the Mexico Daily link. I found it a few days ago but wasn’t able to connect to it beyond the first headline; hopefully your link will get me there.

Right now I’m not thinking of touring at all, tho I DO want to as soon as it feels more reasonable. I have another friend in Ajijic and another who lived there for a while and didn’t like it. For now, my thinking is about medical vs. psychological safety! ? and you all are great to read. I’m meeting with a couple of local friends for a reality check next week, so stay tuned

[wmeleney]

BTW, I don’t personally think that death numbers are very informative. It seems to me that transmission rate backed up by testing and contact tracing is most useful. From all your posts, I believe your status (based on reported numbers) is less dire than here, outside Seattle. And the anecdotal “reports” are much less polarized, definitely leaning toward cautious but without fear than they are here. That in and of itself would be a relief for me!